Bitcoin is on the verge of breaking a decade-long historical pattern as it locks in a strong close to the third quarter. Since 2013, every positive August for the cryptocurrency has been followed by a losing September.
With only two calendar days remaining in the month, a positive close will snap that 13-year streak, marking three consecutive months of gains from July through September and pushing the digital asset to a Q3 gain of over 40%—its first positive third quarter since 2025.
Currently trading around $84,000, bitcoin enters the historically bullish fourth quarter facing an increasingly volatile macroeconomic landscape. Data shows Q4 is typically bitcoin’s strongest quarter, averaging gains of roughly 77%.
However, severe headwinds across global bond markets, energy prices, and upcoming major corporate and political catalysts could test broader investor risk appetite.
Macroeconomic Pressure Points
- Spiking Yields: Global bond yields continue to climb, with the U.S. 10-year yield surpassing 5.2%.
- Elevated Volatility: The MOVE index, which tracks bond market volatility, has risen above 100 to approach its year-to-date highs.
- Persistent Inflation Risks: Oil prices remain firmly above $90 a barrel, compounding inflationary concerns, while traditional safe havens like gold dropped about 3% to just above $4,000 an ounce.
Q4 Liquidity Tests
Beyond macroeconomic pressures, two major events scheduled for November could disrupt liquidity across risk assets.
AI giant Anthropic is reportedly planning an initial public offering in November, which could pull substantial capital and institutional attention toward a massive high-tech equity listing.
Meanwhile, the upcoming U.S. midterm elections are expected to induce further market volatility as investors weigh the future economic policy outlook.
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