Fed Signals Dovish Shift as Growth Slows — Bonds Rally, Asia Mixed

Key Insight: Powell hints inflation surge from tariffs is “transitory,” but growth outlook slashed — bullish for bonds, mixed for equities.

Market Signals:

US GDP forecast cut to 1.7% (from 2.1%); core inflation revised up to 2.8% (from 2.5%).
Fed holds rates, projects two cuts in 2025; Powell says economy “healthy” despite sentiment dip.
10-year Treasury yields fall, driven by dovish Fed and slowed balance sheet unwind.
Gold hits new record $3,056, fueled by geopolitical risks and dollar softness.
Oil climbs on escalating Israel-Gaza conflict.

Winners and Losers:

Winners: US bonds (yield drop), gold miners, oil producers, Southeast Asia equities (Jakarta +2%).
Losers: Hong Kong (-1%), Shanghai (-0.2%) pull back after rally; dollar weakens vs. euro, pound, yen.

Analyst Verdict: Long US Treasuries, Long Gold, Short Hong Kong Tech.