Key Insight: Powell hints inflation surge from tariffs is “transitory,” but growth outlook slashed — bullish for bonds, mixed for equities.
Market Signals:
- US GDP forecast cut to 1.7% (from 2.1%); core inflation revised up to 2.8% (from 2.5%).
- Fed holds rates, projects two cuts in 2025; Powell says economy “healthy” despite sentiment dip.
- 10-year Treasury yields fall, driven by dovish Fed and slowed balance sheet unwind.
- Gold hits new record $3,056, fueled by geopolitical risks and dollar softness.
- Oil climbs on escalating Israel-Gaza conflict.
Winners and Losers:
- Winners: US bonds (yield drop), gold miners, oil producers, Southeast Asia equities (Jakarta +2%).
- Losers: Hong Kong (-1%), Shanghai (-0.2%) pull back after rally; dollar weakens vs. euro, pound, yen.
Analyst Verdict: Long US Treasuries, Long Gold, Short Hong Kong Tech.
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